There's an old adage in game theory. When you are an extreme underdog (and a 4% win probability would qualify) play as risky a game as possible. In other words, maximize the variance of the potential outcomes. That's what Francona was doing and I have zero issue with it.
In fact, I get sick and tired of managers or coaches in all sports playing conservatively in that situation. It always feels to me as if they are playing not to lose "as bad" rather than optimizing their small chance of winning.
There's an old adage in game theory. When you are an extreme underdog (and a 4% win probability would qualify) play as risky a game as possible. In other words, maximize the variance of the potential outcomes. That's what Francona was doing and I have zero issue with it.
In fact, I get sick and tired of managers or coaches in all sports playing conservatively in that situation. It always feels to me as if they are playing not to lose "as bad" rather than optimizing their small chance of winning.
Agreed. This play has been blown up... Because you walked Canzone to get to Raleigh when in fact the logic here holds up for him. Good call 🤙
Josh
Love it.
jw